When the clock struck midnight late Sunday night the Washington Nationals sent shockwaves across baseball by putting an end to the Max Scherzer sweepstakes and signing the former Tigers ace to a seven-year $210 million contract. With an already established pitching staff and a relatively week N.L. East surrounding them, the Nationals made their move and now possess arguably the best pitching rotation baseball has seen in quite a while. When Scherzer put pen to paper, he became the ace of an explosive staff that already features a trio of aces in Jordan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister in addition to talented back end starters Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark.
Unfortunately for fans who want to see their beloved Nationals dominate and bully their respective division, it appears that the team is more inclined to deal one of their big three starters after the Scherzer acquisition.
For a team like the New York Yankees who need significant upgrades to their starting rotation but don't want to commit to a $200 million dollar investment in Scherzer, this news has to be a major red flag and draw significant attractiveness. MLB insider Jon Morosi even went as far as reporting that the Nationals have been shopping Jordan Zimmerman for 'weeks' now, perhaps in hopes of clearing cap space before the Scherzer contract.
Although there would be some prospect cost behind acquiring one of three Nationals starters, there's no reason why the Yankees shouldn't at least inquire on the possibility of adding one of them. This is a team whose top two starters (Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda) are talented beyond measure, but are all surrounded in a black cloud of injury-related issues. After them, it's former ace Carlston Charles Sabathia, who might never pitch the same again due to failing knees, an unfinished product in Nathan Eovaldi, who's yet to pitch a game in Yankee stadium and Chris Capuano, a fifth starter at best. Their rotation is far from complete, but even if the Yankees added the worst Nationals pitcher, it would be seen as a significant upgrade with less than one month before pitchers and catchers return to Spring Training.
Let's take a look at their options;
1. Trade for Jordan Zimmerman
Age: 28
2014 Stats: 32 GS, 199 2/3 IP, 2.66 ERA, 182 K, 8.2 K/9
Career Stats: 145 GS, 892 1/3 IP, 3.24 ERA, 739 K, 7.5 K/9
Current Contract: Owed $12M in 2015, Free-Agent at seasons end
The most likely candidate to be traded according to a plethora of MLB insiders is in fact Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman has been the Nationals most consistent starter over the past two seasons and was undoubtedly the Nationals ace in 2014. A second round draft pick out of the American Dairy Land, the Wisconsin native got off to a sub-par start to his MLB career in '09 before it was revealed that he needed Tommy John surgery. He underwent the procedure in August of that season, and exceeded all expectations when he resiliently returned to a major league mound a little over a year to the date of his surgery.
The Nationals cautiously restricted Zimmerman to a 160 IP limit in 2011, and he returned to true form in 2012 by the time the Nationals won their first N.L. East title. That year he posted a .294 ERA in 195 2/3 IP. Unlike phenom Stephen Strasburg, Zimmerman was not shut down that year for the post-season, but he unfortunately did not pitch well and was the losing pitcher in game five of the N.L.D.S v. the St. Louis Cardinals. Zimmerman shook it off, and has since been an All-Star pitcher for the Nationals, earning significant Cy Young votes in each of the last two seasons.
Zimmerman is now one of the better right-hand pitchers in all of baseball, and even for a one-year rental out of Zimmerman before he hits free agency, the cost to acquire the right hander figures to be the highest compared to the asking prices for Cole Hamels and all the other pitchers currently on the trade market. A Zimmerman trade strikes up an eerily similar comparison to the 2009 trade that sent major league ready Melky Cabrera, top prospect Arodys Vicieno and set-up man Mike Dunn from the Yankees to the Braves in exchange for one year out of Javier Vazquez. I'm not going to pinpoint any specifics and guess who exactly the Nationals would prioritize from the Yankees system, but I'd imagine a similar package to the aforementioned '09 trade should suffice. Another comparison might be similar to what the Brewers just acquired from the Texas Rangers in exchange for Yovani Gallardo; one infield prospect and two hard-throwing right hand prospects. Now Zimmerman is significantly better than Gallardo, so this would only be a starting point, but the Yankees have certainly acquired a surplus of prospects this winter.
2. Trade for Stephen Strasburg:
*Fingers crossed for all Yankee fans*
Age: 26
2014 Stats: 34 GS, 215 IP, 3.14 ERA, 242 K, 10.1 K/9
Career Stats: 109 GS, 649 1/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 746 K, 10.3 K/9
Current Contract: Owed $7.4 million in 2015, under team control through the end of 2016
Let's briefly recall the saga that was Stephen Strasburg. He was one of the most exciting draft prospects in recent history, and the Nationals, like everyone knew they would, drafted Strasburg number one overall in the 2009 MLB Entry Draft. He made his highly anticipated major league debut on June 8, 2010, where he sensationally fanned 14 Pittsburgh Pirate batter in seven innings pitched. His next 11 major league starts proved that all the hype surrounding him was certainly true to form and had baseball fans across the world believing that Strasburg was the next best thing since the days of Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez, but like Zimmerman, Strasburg suffered an injury that would require Tommy John surgery. However, the Nationals were fortunate enough to again get their fallen ace back almost a year to the date in which he went under the knife.
Strasburg showed no ill affects or set backs from the tommy john surgery in 2012, when he was named a National League All-Star and pitched to an encouraging 3.16 ERA in 28 starts. To much dismay, the Nationals cut his season short by keeping him on a strict innings limit, preventing him from pitching in the playoffs.
Since the start of the 2013 season, Strasburg has pitched to a 22-20 record, but his true value outshines his win-loss column. He led the entire National League in strikeouts last season while posting an outstanding 1.121 WHIP. Make no mistake about it, Strasburg is, and will continue to be a strikeout magician with a low walk ratio.
There's been conflicting reports across baseball, but many insiders insist that Strasburg is very much available. But unfortunately, the price to acquire Strasburg will be significantly higher than the already steep price to acquire Zimmerman, as the young ace has two full years of team control. To get James Shields for two years, the Kansas City Royals had to chalk up a loaded package of four prospects headlined by Jake Ordozzi and Will Myers. I'd imagine the cost for Strasburg would be quite similar, and although the Yankees have done a nice job this offseason courting young prospects, it might not be enough to land Strasburg.
3. Trade for Dough Fister:
Age: 31
2014 Stats: 25 GS, 164 IP, 2.41 ERA, 98 K, 5.4 K/9
Career Stats: 152 GS, 982 2/3 IP, 3.34 ERA, 669K, 6.1 K/9
Current Contract: Owed $11.4 MM in 2015, Free agent at seasons end
Doug Fister is a baseball analytics trophy pitcher. Drafter by the Mariners in the seventh round in 2006, Fister has been among the most consistent pitchers in all of baseball since the 2011 season. From 2011 to now, he's averaged 28 starts per season and has recorded an impressive 3.11 ERA with an even more impressive 1.7 BB/9 ratio. He's not your hard throwing strikeout machine like everyone else in the Nationals rotation. Instead, he's a crafty sinker baller with a ground ball rate that typically sits around 50%. The movement on his pitches constantly changes his opponents eye level and they simply just don't post good numbers against him.
Interestingly enough, he's already been traded twice in his career for an interesting array of assets. In 2011 the Mariners shipped him to the Tigers at the trade deadline for a package headlined by Casper Wells and Charlie Furbush. In the winter of 2013, the Tigers went on to trade him to the Nationals for Robbie Ray, reliever Ian Krol and Steve Lombardozzi... It's safe to assume that Fister has far exceeded the value he was traded for in both trades.
If the Nationals want to add to the underwhelming return of assets for Fister, Brian Cashman should be waiting in line with open arms.
What to do. What to do.
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