Friday, October 3, 2014

Predicting the 2015 New York Yankees Starting Rotation


It's no secret that injuries dismantled the Yankees starting rotation in 2014 and was a huge contributing factor as to why the team didn't make playoffs. Unfortunately, a majority of the injured arms that wen't down still have concerns heading into next season. C.C. Sabathia's knee injury is said to be career threatening, Ivan Nova is recovering from the dreaded tommy john surgery and isn't expected to return until after Spring Training, David Phelps never returned from his shoulder injury, Michael Pineda did indeed come back strong - but still hasn't pitched a complete season since 2011, and Masahiro Tanaka has question marks surrounding his slight UCL-tear after getting shelled in his last outing of the season v. the Boston Red Sox.

It's almost evident that if the Yankees wan't to succeed in 2015, Brian Cashman and co. will have to revamp the starting rotation this winter.

Looking ahead towards free-agency, there are some significant pitchers with different contract demands. At the high-end scale you have Max Scherzer and Jon Lester headlining this years crop of pitchers. Both have proven dominance in the MLB and will require long-term and big money deals. Lester seems like a better fit for numerous reasons. He's a lefty, he has proven success in the AL East,  he doesn't have Scott Boras calling the shots, and he's not attached to draft-pick compensation like Max Scherzer. Mid-level scale options include 'Big Game' James Shields and Brandon McCarthy. Both of these hurlers are over 30 years old, but still have a lot of life in their arms. Shields is a proven work horse and will definitely be pursued by many teams this winter. McCarthy on the other hand rewarded the Yankees with an incredible second-half after Brian Cashman traded for him mid-season.  A return to the Yankees can certainly be in the cards for Brandon McCarthy if he's willing to take a two or three year deal.

As far as in-house options, one name that sticks out is Shane Greene. Greene pitched relatively well for the Yankees this year and in my opinion he certainly deserves a rotation spot in 2015, but you never know when it comes to the New York Yankees. Down in the farm you have Luis Servino and Manny Banuelos, but both will need to work on their command in order to make it to the bigs. I'm actually a big fan of Servino, and if he can repeat this past-season's dominance in the early stages of next year, I'm hoping the Yankees promote him late during the 2015 season.

Scanning over the trade market, there are really only two candidates I think the Yankees would entertain; Cole Hamels and Ian Kennedy. However, both would probably require the Yankees strip an already weak farm system in order to complete a trade, especially for Cole Hamels who still have five years and $110 million guaranteed on his contract.

My gut tells me that the Yankees rotation will look like this in April 2015;

Jon Lester
Masahiro Tanaka
C.C. Sabatia
Michael Pineda
Brandon McCarthy/ Shane Greene

Time will certainly tell.


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